So Nate Silver is the stats nerd of the year for his great (or lucky, if you hate science) methodology around poll aggregation and the poll weighting algorithm he employed regarding the prediction of the outcome of the recent national elections. Congratulations Nate, if I didn’t live in a country with Byzantine banking laws, I would have made a tidy sum using your leg work (among others – I firmly believe in leveraging the wisdom of crowds of experts) to invest on “Obama to win” via the event based market InTrade. I haven’t been able to find any apologies by the demonizers who suggested Nate was just another political hack (like them?) who was rooting for the wrong team and trying to hide it behind some sort of magical thinking in the guise of science, but I can’t say I looked too hard.
While the disappointing part of the whole Nate Silver predicting the elections bit lies in the constant misinterpretation of what Nate actually did to come by his numbers due to the general publics’ pseudounderstanding of statistics, the beauty of the press he received both before and after the election has elevated the role of data in decision making – even messy social data like poll results (essentially surveys, with all their inherent issues). The age old “gut feeling” as the sole driver of decision making (i.e. guessing) is coming under needed scrutiny in an age where having current and historical information is finally possible. Those who fail to incorporate data, especially data that is readily available or easily gathered, will be left behind or when successful in their guesses (expertise does have its place) will be less efficient.
It is my firm opinion that gut feeling is a garnish best placed on top of data driven analysis where the depth of gut needed is (roughly) inversely proportionate to the data available. Nate doesn’t use gut feelings, he uses data, which can then then be handed to those responsible for making decisions.
So how does Nate Silver make my job easier? As Silver commented to Jon Stewart on the Daily Show after being asked about what it would mean if his model had been wrong, Nate responded “It would have been bad, I think, because for some reason 538 became invested with this symbolic power, and you know symbolic power isn’t particularly rational, right, but it became this symbol for people who were believing in hey, let’s look at the polls. Let’s do some empirical research, right.” Empirical research was shown to best guts. This research was contrary to a huge contingent of, not surprisingly, biased observers but was shown to be superior to all other estimations, guesses, scrying stone proclamations, etc. even those made by individuals with a vested interest in Obama winning. His. Model. Won. Data won. As data of such a highly scrutinized, over-thought, expensive contest won over individual “expert” opinion, my job got easier. The hugely symbolic power of that specific use of data helps serve as a powerful example of what data can do. When talking to organizations about the value of data, the value of quality data, and the usefulness of measurement to drive business decisions I now have an example that everyone knows, and in some small way, understands. Am I comparing myself to Nate Silver? Not particularly – we come from very different backgrounds, education, approaches etc. But one thing is certain – he has just made the human interaction part of my job a lot easier – that part where I am convincing a client to invest in data resources, to care about data quality, data completeness, and data driven decision making. Thanks Nate.